2026 Predictions - January 9, 2026

I hope everyone enjoyed the Holidays, and got to spend time with family and friends.  I was able to do so and was really happy to spend time with our two sons and their friends.  I took the opportunity to take a break from writing and did not publish an article last week.  During that break I did spend time thinking about and coming up with an outline of topics I want to write about in 2026.  My list of topics is not etched in stone, and so if there are any topics of interest to you that you’d like me to write about please share those with me.  

 I’m looking forward to sharing my first article for 2026 with you here, in which I present my predictions for 2026.  This is my second such annual prognostication, and I’m hoping my score for 2026 will be much better than what I achieved for 2025…which was a measly six out of ten.  My 2025 predictions can be found here.  

Here are my predictions for 2026:

1. The Liberal Party remains in power and forms the Canadian government throughout 2026.  You’ll recall that the Liberals formed a minority government in April 2025, which means they need supporting votes from some opposition members of parliament to pass legislation and maintain their ruling position.  So far the government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Mark Carney has done an acceptable job of navigating through tumultuous political and international events.  I don’t foresee Canadians wanting another election during 2026 and would prefer elected officials instead focus on shoring up Canada’s economy and international partnerships.  

2. Pierre Polivere shall be displaced as leader of the opposition Conservative party. Under Polivere’s recent leadership the Conservatives have lost three MPs that were elected in the Spring 2025 Election, with two of those defecting to the governing Liberals.  One more such loss and the Liberals will secure a majority government.  Poliivere has not conducted himself with humility, grace and an appreciation of the embarrassing loss he suffered in the Spring 2025 election.  I believe his party has had enough of his antics and will seek real leadership in their upcoming leadership convention.  

3. In the Fall 2026 US midterm elections, the Democrats will win enough new seats in the House of Representatives, to assume control of the House, from the Republicans. The Republicans won the last US election on the promise to reduce the cost of living and make life better, for all Americans.  After a year in power, the Republicans have passed a tax cut for wealthy Americans, have effectively taken control of another sovereign nation, have sown fear throughout the country with a secret police that operates outside legal norms while claiming to hunt down “illegal aliens”, and has blocked attempts by the states to regulate a rapidly emerging technology in artificial intelligence while failing to do what is needed with a comprehensive set of federal AI laws.  All of this, and more insanity, has led to frustration amongst the American people, and they will express their displeasure at the polls in November 2026.    

4. In the Fall 2026 US midterm elections, the Democrats will win enough new seats in the US Senate, to assume control of the Senate from the Republicans. This one may be harder to pull off, but the displeasure of American voters with the ruling Republicans is so strong right now that losing the Senate is a real possibility for the Republicans. 

5. The Ottawa Senators will make the 2025-2026 NHL Playoffs. and they will win their first round matchup.  As I write this the Ottawa Senators are playing some of their worst hockey of the season.  Just last night they were shellacked by the Colorado Avalanche 8-2; on Wednesday night they lost to the lowly Utah Mammoth and on Monday night they lost to the Detroit Red Wings, giving them three straight losses, and a record of 4-6 over their last ten games.  These recent results are not cause for optimism; however, other than the whooping at the hands of the Avalanche, the team has played good hockey even though the results don’t show it.  I remain optimistic that the team will play well in the second half of the NHL season, make the 2025-26 playoffs and will win their opening round series.  

6. The Boston Red Sox will make the 2026 MLB Playoffs, and they will win their first round matchup. This off-season the Red Sox have added a much needed strong hitter, who can also play first base, in Willson Contreras…this was a missing piece from the 2025 team.  The team has also added Sonny Gray to their starting pitching rotation, bolstering their pitching staff.  These additions to the roster, plus others, have strengthened the Red Sox, solidifying them as contenders in the 2026 season. 

7. The Ukraine-Russia war will come to an end.  2026 will bring the fifth year of the conflict. Despite the bluster from the current US Administration, the Americans will not lead the way to a peaceful resolution here.  It’ll be diplomacy from the Europeans with an assist from Canada, that will finally bring reason to this insanity.  The world, and in particular, the Ukrainian and Russian people have had enough of this meaningless conflict.  Am I being overly optimistic? I don’t think so, and here is why: 1) there is military exhaustion on both sides - Ukraine is constantly asking for military aid from the West and from Europe; Russian casualties (military and civilian) have exceeded one million people; 2) the economic pressure on Russia continues to cripple the country and eventually it will break; 3) there is growing fatigue among Ukraine’s Western allies as this conflict drags into a fifth year. Support for aid to Ukraine will fade; 4) To seek an end to the conflict, Ukraine may soften its position of full territorial restoration, in exchange for security guarantees from the West and no further territorial loss.  

8. The United States will still not establish a nation-wide set of laws and regulations governing the use and implementation of AI.  The corporate hyper-scaler companies (Meta, Amazon, Microsoft), plus Oracle, Nvidia, Broadcom and others continue to have the ear of President Trump. They have successfully convinced the President, and will continue to do so throughout the year, that the best course of action is for AI companies to regulate themselves. They will continue to point to the regulation regime for the Internet (from 1995 to present) as a good model to follow with AI.  Most experts disagree and are clamouring for some form of unified national set of laws and regulations for AI.  Several US states agree and are trying to enact their own state-wide laws; this effort is being blocked by the federal administration. With the President having the US Supreme Court in his back pocket, the administration's approach of doing nothing and leaving it up to the industry to self-regulate, will prevail. 

9. The use of nuclear power as a source of energy becomes more popular and more widely used, driven by the adoption of SMR (small modular reactors), and MMRs (micro modular reactors).  Just today I read of Meta’s (Facebook) agreements to source nuclear-based power to supply energy to one of its mega data centres in Ohio.  The plan is to deploy SMRs (small modular reactors) close to the data centre, thus securing an exclusive and direct source of energy for meta’s data centre.  These types of electricity-supply plans are now commonplace amongst data centres, and are now being considered for military bases, Northern communities, mining sites and academic campuses; regular hydro electricity grids are becoming, or already are, fully tapped out.  

10. Will there be a stock market crash in 2026? - No;  While the stock markets in the United States and Canada delivered excellent results in 2025, there has been lots of writing about this performance being largely driven by the AI industry, and in particular by seven-to-ten companies.  I wrote about this in an article here.  The AI industry driving stock market performance is a US phenomenon, while the Canadian markets’ performance has been more balanced, driven by natural resources,  precious metals and financial stocks.  Because the Canadian markets are more balanced I don’t see a pull back on the Canadian side, as noted in my prediction below (#12), I foresee a healthy gain in the Canadian markets in 2026.  On the US side, this heavy concentration on technology, and in particular AI, has led to talk of an AI bubble that may burst in 2026.  I don’t see that happening. I believe the US stock market will have a healthy gain in 2026 (as noted below in my prediction #11); the US market will continue to be driven by AI as I don’t see the AI momentum slowing down in 2026.  

11. The S&P 500 index crosses 7,700 in 2026, a 13% year-over-year increase. The S&P 500 index gained 16% in 2025, largely on the backs of seven-to-ten technology companies. This trend will continue as there are no signs of the AI hype slowing down, and the current US administration shows no interest in implementing nation-wide regulations and laws to govern how AI is implemented and used.  Thus my prediction is that the euphoria continues.  

12. The TSX index in Canada crosses 35,000 , a 10% year-over-year gain.  The Canadian market indices gain 29% in 2025, an exceptional performance.  The “buy Canadian” momentum in the second half of last year contributed to this.  It will be tough to replicate the 2025 performance for a second year in a row, but we should see a healthy gain from the Canadian markets in 2026 as this strong domestic sentiment will continue.