Waymo vs. Uber - Part Two - Robotaxis Revisited - September 4, 2026

Uber Is Fighting Back, But Keep An Eye on Tesla In The Rearview Mirror

The ongoing battle for driverless ride-sharing became a lot more interesting this week. Uber launched its first robotaxi service in London and Tesla launched the Cybercab in Austin. Meanwhile Waymo continues to lead the way in driverless ride-sharing by operating 4,000 driverless vehicles across 14 cities.  

This week I read an article in TNW from Darius Popa that described Uber launching its robotaxi service in London, the first self-driving ride-sharing service offered in that city.  This reminded me of an article I published in October 2025 (which can be read here), in which I hypothesized that driverless ride-sharing company Waymo, a division of Google, may displace Uber as the market leader in ride-sharing.  I was not surprised to read in Popa’s article that Uber is not prepared to cede the lead position in ride-sharing as a whole, and that it had a robust initiative in driverless ride-sharing. I would expect nothing less from Uber.  This article revisits the ride-sharing war between Waymo and Uber, and in particular, fully self-driving ride-sharing.  

As far as overall number of rides delivered and revenues derived from ride-sharing, Uber is still miles ahead of Waymo.  But as I argued in my prior article, my thesis was that driverless ride-sharing is ultimately going to be the norm, and in that subset of ride-sharing, Waymo was, and still is, ahead of Uber.  So this discussion will focus on how the competitors are faring with full self-driving (“FSD”) ride-sharing.  

Uber

As mentioned above, Uber launched its FSD riding-sharing initiative in London this week, in partnership with autonomous vehicle software company Wayve. Uber is entering the London market first, ahead of Waymo, Tesla and others.  London presents one of the most challenging driving environments for human drivers, let alone FSD vehicles.  It presents a great place to truly test the capabilities of the Uber/Wayve FSD vehicles.  The London test will be made up of 15 vehicles equipped with Wayve’s AI Driver, and a licensed human safety driver sitting behind the wheel. Ride-sharing customers won’t know upfront if their requested vehicle will be self-driving or have a human driver, and they are currently prevented from specifically requesting a driverless ride. If a self-driving Uber appears for pickup and the customer is uncomfortable with no human driver, they can decline that vehicle and request another Uber with a human driver. In this scenario, Uber will credit the customer $5 for the delay.  

So, while Uber/Wayve deserve credit for being first to test FSD vehicles in London, they are venturing in with a cautious approach, and rightfully so given the limited amount of prior experience Uber has with FSD vehicles.  

Earlier in 2026, Uber launched an FSD ride-sharing trial in Croatia, and already has similar FSD trials in multiple US cities (Atlanta, Austin, Dallas and Las Vegas). Most of these trials utilize a human safety driver, except those trials, ironically, done in partnership with Waymo vehicles in some US cities.  

Broadly, Uber is taking a different approach than Waymo. In  the London FSD trial Uber is using the Mustang Mach-E from Ford, controlled by Wayve AI drivers. Uber has, however, partnered with several other vehicle brands, and other driver software companies for its other trial locations. 

Waymo

Waymo is planning to enter the London market in 2027, subject to obtaining local regulatory approval, with no human safety driver in the vehicles. This is consistent with other markets in which it currently offers FSD ride-sharing.  Waymo can do this because it has already accumulated more than 200 million miles of real driving experience, and more than 20 billion miles in simulated driving. It operates its FSD ride-sharing service in 14 US cities.  Waymo recently added Denver, San Diego and Tampa to its ride-sharing network, with expansion to additional locations occurring on a regular basis.  The aggregate Waymo fleet consists of over 4,000 vehicles on the road today, all without a human driver.   

Waymo uses three types of vehicles (Jaguar I-Pace most commonly, Zeekr and Ojai),  but exclusively uses its own proprietary driver control software.   

Additional information about Waymo’s operations can be found in my prior article, here. 

Tesla

Can we ever really refer to Tesla as a dark horse in anything?  Tesla began its Cybercab robotaxi service in Austin, TX on September 3, 2026. The Cybercab has no steering wheel or pedals, which could pose a visual challenge for customers to accept, when entering the vehicle.  Riding-sharing services with the Cybercab are currently offered in limited areas of Austin. The Cybercab was developed by Tesla itself for the explicit purpose of driverless ride-sharing.  

While the Cybercab is a bold step forward by Tesla, the company does have some experience with self-driving ride-sharing, offering this service in six US cities, with 256 Model Y Tesla vehicles on the road in those cities.  

FSD is also available to Tesla owners broadly, as a limited-use software feature.  My understanding is that a human adult (likely determined by weight in the driver’s seat) has to be present in the vehicle.  

While Tesla may be late to the FSD game, despite multiple promises from Elon Musk, Uber and Waymo aren’t sleeping on Tesla, because while it only has 256 FSD vehicles operating in one city, Austin, TX, it does have 9.6 million vehicles on the road worldwide, and almost 4 million in the US alone.  Once its FSD technology is perfected and tested, Tesla will have a potential fleet of 9.6 million self-driving ride-sharing vehicles worldwide!  Waymo and Uber can’t catch up to that! 

Which Business Model Wins?

Waymo currently has the largest fleet of full self-driving ride-sharing vehicles on the road today.  But, its business model is to use only their own proprietary driver control technology and have every city it operates in, mapped-out for its vehicles.  And, Waymo’s model requires a lot of capital as it owns the ride-sharing vehicles and has to outfit each with its driver control software. Making Waymo operational in each city is costly and time-consuming.  

Uber’s model is agnostic to the type of vehicle and agnostic to driver control software, but provides a proven ride-sharing model to any acceptable partner companies to enable FSD ride-sharing.  Its business model doesn’t require huge capital outlays for vehicles, sensors and control software.  But becoming operational at a large scale requires the integration of multiple systems (ride-sharing and driver control software embedded in third party vehicles) which could slow down any large-scale rollout. 

Tesla plans to perfect driver control technology in software and then offer it as a software upgrade to millions of existing Tesla owners, creating the largest fleet of FSD ride-sharing vehicles on the planet, overnight!  Elon’s companies are notorious for taking a long time to perfect and commercialize new technologies (crashing and flaming space rockets and satellites; crashing and flaming electric vehicles; the ruining of a digital social town hall (Twitter/X)).  He’s also famous for over-promising and under-delivering.  But, I give Elon a lot of credit for taking on the most difficult and challenging of technological problems, and eventually his ideas do work (except for whatever he’s turned X into), and when they work they are society-changing.  He does make hard things work.  

Final Word

In my prior article (read here) I implied that in the long run, Waymo may win the crown for ride-sharing champion, and I didn’t mention Tesla in that article.  The exercise of researching and drafting this piece has caused me to change my mind, and if I were to lay down money, I'd bet on Tesla. 

Thanks for reading.

In the comments below, share your views. Would you take a ride in a driverless vehicle?  In your opinion, who wins this race - Waymo, Uber or Tesla?  Is Tesla really the one to watch?