There's No Art In This Deal - June 19, 2026

This Is Why The World Endured A Four-Month War?!

The book, The Art of the Deal, was “written” by Donald Trump and published in November  1987.  It spent 48 weeks on the New York Times bestseller list, 13 of them at No. 1, and it became one of the best-selling business books of the 1980s.  The story told within this writing helped establish Trump's public persona as a dealmaker and “savvy” businessman.  It was this reputation that Trump utilized to formulate his political brand decades later, when he ran for President in 2015-16 and again in 2023-24. 

Those that worked with Trump, or did deals with him, in New York City in 1980s, 90s and 2000s, may have already known the truth about Trump’s dealmaking abilities, but the rest of the world has been witness to what his skillset really is in this regard while he served as President.  And, this past week, we were reminded once again of what his true “dealmaking” skills are.  

On June 17, 2026 President Trump and Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a Memorandum Of Understanding, allegedly ending the US-Iran war, with a sixty day period for both sides to establish a long term nuclear agreement. This MOU came eight years after Trump pulled the US out of the prior Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) entered into with Iran by the Obama Administration in July of 2015.  

Given that Trump has been hyper-critical of Obama’s JCPOA, this new Trump MOU has been compared to that prior deal, and a lot of observers are asking the question, are we better off now under the Trump deal?

The MOU is a page-and-half long and contains a framework, where Iran commits to no longer procuring or developing nuclear weapons, in exchange for relief from sanctions, a $300 billion reconstruction plan with the funding to be provided by the US, and the resumption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.  The Obama JCPOA deal was a nuclear-first treaty with detailed verification and time-bound limits, while Trump's MOU addresses the  ceasefire first, for a war that Trump himself started, but that leaves many nuclear specifics to be negotiated later.  Remember, ridding Iran of nuclear weapons capability was the stated purpose of the US starting a war with Iran, in the first place.  So while Trump may perhaps have succeeded in ending a war he himself started, there is a huge “To Be Determined” on whether Iran will no longer have nuclear weapons capability. Further, Obama’s JCPOA allowed Iran to enrich uranium up to 3.67% for 15 years, enough for the purposes of developing a nuclear power programme, but well below the 90% needed to produce nuclear weapons. The Trump memorandum does not yet mention whether Iran will be permitted to enrich uranium at all; this critical question is deferred to the 60-day negotiation period.

Unlike when the Obama Administration negotiated the JCPOA, Iran's uranium stockpile now includes uranium enriched to 60% purity, closer to the amount needed for weapons-grade material. The Obama JCPOA required Iran to be limited to 3.67%.  Supporters of Trump will argue that the Obama deal did not stop Iran from developing or securing increased enriched uranium; while critics of Trump will argue that Iran developed or obtained this higher enriched uranium in the past eight years, after Trump pulled the US out of the existing JCPOA treaty.  

The Trump MOU says the two countries "agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material" with a minimum standard of "down-blending" Iran's enriched uranium on site under supervision; however it is not clear if the enriched uranium would be destroyed, removed from the country, or merely down-blended to a lower grade. Again, more details still to be worked out. 

One criticism of the Obama JCPOA was its finite "sunset" provisions; certain restrictions expired 10–15 years after the agreement was signed. The Trump MOU framework aims to avoid sunset clauses and to link nuclear constraints to broader regional security issues including ballistic missiles and proxy activity, expanding the agenda beyond the JCPOA's narrower nuclear focus.  If this proves to be the case in the final agreement, this will indeed be progress. 

The Trump 2026 MOU is a ceasefire agreement intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the nuclear issues being deferred into the 60-day follow-up negotiation period, thus rendering the initially sought after nuclear constraints, secondary. Multiple analysts have  flagged the compressed timeline as a serious concern; the Obama JCPOA deal took nearly two years of  diplomacy to draft, while Trump's team claims his deal can be finalized in 60 days.  Once again, Trump’s inexperience in this area is showing.  

Critics further argue that the Trump MOU front-end loads economic relief for Iran before comprehensive verification of nuclear capabilities are in place. The 2026 Trump MOU also goes significantly further economically than the Obama JCPOA did; the JCPOA provided sanctions relief and $1.7 billion in funding for Iran for economic redevelopment, but the Trump MOU includes a $300 billion reconstruction plan for Iran.  The hypocrisy here is that Trump has been repeatedly critical of Obama, for having the United States “give away” $1.7 billion to Iran, while this “big, beautiful” deal gave Iran 176 times more money  without having yet secured any of the nuclear commitments that were the claimed original intent of this war.  

So, over the past four months we’ve had a war that’s affected global oil markets, and, for one reason or another, caused the price of gasoline to increase substantially for consumers; we’ve experienced wild fluctuations in the stock markets that have caused nervousness amongst retail investors, and we’ve experienced higher inflation due to higher transportation costs and shipping delays. Various parts of the world have suffered more than others, but it’s safe to say there has been pain inflicted globally by this war. Not to be forgotten is the civilian and military loss of life that occurred.   

And now, we have a “deal” that doesn’t yet address the originally claimed reason why we suffered this pain. 

There’s no art in this deal.