If we say the COVID-19 pandemic became real in mid to late March 2020, then we are now 16 months into it. The impact has been devastating for so many, both from a physical and mental health perspective, and from a work and economic perspective. Lots has already been written about this pandemic and much more analysis and writing will come in the years ahead, as we fully grasp what we’ve been through.
Offices were closed and staff have been working remotely for over a year. Frontline workers have continued to come in to retail locations, factories and warehouses to ensure vital goods and services are delivered. And most importantly, health care workers have worked long shifts directly dealing with COVID patients since day 1 of this pandemic.
During this time employees, employers, shareholders and owners have revisited many of the long-standing assumptions and norms about “work” and the “workplace”.
There is now cautious optimism that the worst is behind us as vaccines are available, infection and death rates are steadily declining, and commercial and retail services are resuming. And, there is considerable discussion and writing about the workplace, post the pandemic.
There three obvious paths forward:
For employers/employees to continue to work remotely
For employees to all return to the office
A hybrid format with some days working from home and some in-person work days at the company premises.
Tech sector giants such as Google, Facebook and Shopify have gone on record stating that many of their workforce will work remotely on a permanent basis, and have gone so far as to shed millions of square feet of office space. It’s important to note that each of these “leaders” in the adoption of permanent remote work have indicated that there will remain positions that will require staff to attend at an office.
On the other side are the large Wall Street banks such as JP Morgan and Goldman Sach who are strongly encouraging workers to return to the office by the Fall 2021. This is company leadership asking nicely, for now. Don’t be surprised that if the voluntary return to office doesn’t exceed some threshold (say 75-80%) that these types of organizations will mandate a return to the office.
Apple falls into the camp of a hybrid approach with roughly half the week at the office. I have this conversation with business leaders as often as I can - “what is your company doing? How are you implementing the return to work?”. Almost all of the SME leaders are with Apple’s position, in promoting a hybrid return to the office. Ironically in confidence, most say they would prefer to have everyone back in the office but the hurt from the pandemic and the adjustments workers have made is still very fresh. They feel pressure to support remote work options for their staff, and are doing so.
Competitors are using this opportunity to recruit or poach employees by offering full remote work, and some monetary allowance to facilitate working from home. Apple and others have to combat this with a hybrid approach.
However - listen to what Tim Cook, Jamie Dimon and other business leaders are saying. To paraphrase, they are reminding everyone that there is no substitute for in-person face-to-face interaction. The random collaborations and conversations that occur when you bump into someone at the office. Ideas are generated quicker and flushed out more thoroughly through in-person conversations. Issues are resolved faster when people can quickly jump into a conference room or get in front of a whiteboard, work out a solution and lay out an implementation plan. No need to schedule a phone or video meeting when everyone is right there.
Contrarians will argue that technology today is robust and easy to use, and forcing people into the office is archaic. Making people commute to work is old school. Cue up the “OK Boomer” chant. Technology does afford companies and their teams considerable flexibility to work from anywhere. People were forced into it by the pandemic and now they are used to it. It’s cruel to take this flexibility away. Points taken.
Tools have been developed and are now commercially available that aim to replicate ongoing ad-hoc social interactions over video. Open video applications, Slack channels, etc. Advocates of remote work are calling for business leaders to broadly adopt these and similar tools, to make remote workers feel part of the organization.
Remote advocates are also calling company management to revisit how promotions and raises are granted and how prime assignments are allocated. They want leaders to ensure remote workers get the same consideration even though they may not be seen day in, day out.
There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that people are more productive from home and have reduced their wasted time commuting. They’ve achieved more balance by being more present for their families and friends.
However - people are people. Human nature won’t change *that* much because of the pandemic. Relationships and trust are built up through repeated face-to-face interactions. We seek out and crave interactions, touch, visual feedback, and real eye contact.
Even the best video meeting applications cannot replace these in-person encounters. It is unrealistic to think decision makers and leaders will set aside entirely their years of training and experience. Human physiology will not change that dramatically.
Strong business leaders have recognized the change in work patterns and expectations caused by the pandemic. Good leaders will sincerely make accommodations to allow for more flexible work arrangements, and their businesses will succeed as a result.
A new study recently released by the University of Chicago concludes that the notion that remote workers are more productive is a fallacy. The data shows that workers are commuting less, and spending more time with family. However, the study shows that workers are actually spending more time connected to their work and work activities. It also shows that work output and work quality metrics have declined during this extended work-from-home period. It’s the first such study conducted and released that includes data from before the pandemic began and throughout the pandemic up to May 2021. So, not so fast on the “work-from-home is obviously better” dogma.
Informally polling of younger workers under the age of 30, who are in the early stages of their careers shows a keen desire to have considerable in-office time. The collective cohort of young millennials and late stage Gen Z want to build those relationships that will advance their careers. They want to connect with and establish mentoring arrangements. These are tough to do over video and chat applications. They are also seeking the in-person socializing that comes with going into the office. And, they are not the only ones. Boomers, Gen X and older millennials miss their work friends and look forward to seeing them when they return to the office. People have short memories. People are social creatures.
One thing that won’t change is the expectations placed on business leadership by stakeholders, investors and shareholders. And good leaders will continue to do what’s needed to achieve the objectives of their companies. If a leader doesn’t feel remote work arrangements are giving them the output and results they need, changes will occur and more in-person collaboration will be mandated.
There have been epidemics in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. Yet we were completely unprepared for this pandemic and human nature tells us that memories are short. People had forgotten about SARS-1 or H1N1. After any prior epidemic or pandemic, life returned to normal in a relatively short period of time.
My sense is that post-pandemic material accommodations and adjustments to work routines to allow for remote work will last about 18 months at best. People are people...and they need to connect with others in person. They will rely on people they trust. Trust is built up through repeated person interaction. Video and chat channels can do a lot...but it won’t do that.
Thank you for investing time in reading this post. Questions and comments are always welcome.
Shail Paliwal
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