Here is my first annual set of predictions, starting off with the year 2025
Elon Musk and Donald Trump have a falling out
Elon Musk spent approximately $150M of his own money to help Donald Trump get elected President of the United States in the 2024 General Election. This obviously got Donald’s attention and gratitude, and gave Elon a large degree of influence with Donald. Can’t wait to hear Elon’s views on NASA, and how those views benefit his company Space-X; or Elon’s views on the electric vehicle industry and how those benefit Tesla. And in each of those examples, or countless others, how much Donald remains impartial and is able to set aside his gratitude for the $150M Elon spent to help get Donald elected, will be a sight to behold. After the election Elon was present for some of the transition planning, and had a say in the selection of Trump’s cabinet. Elon also landed a job in the Trump administration as the co-head of the newly formed U.S. Department of Government Efficiency.
My prediction is that Elon and Donald have a falling out and Elon leaves the Trump Administration. Both Elon and Donald are used to “being the man”. Elon is used to being in-charge and getting what he wants. In the words of Open AI co-founder Sam Altman, “a known thing about Elon is that he really cares about being ‘the guy.’” But Donald is the President, is equally used to having his way, and equally cares about being the guy.
Some issue will arise where they don’t see eye-to-eye and Elon will leave. Or, the shareholders at one of the six companies that Elon runs will demand he leave his government post and devote his time and energy to his commercial enterprises. Or, the complaints about Elon’s conflict of interest, being a senior government bureaucrat and having conflicting material interests in companies that receive government contracts, or who’s business fortunes depend on government policy ( ie tax credits for electric vehicles), could get so loud it becomes unbearable for both Donald Trump and Elon Musk, that Donald has to “fire” Elon.
Either way this is two atoms in a confined space and combustion is inevitable at some point.This marriage won't last because of the oversized ego and unwillingness to compromise these two men possess as primary character traits.
Justin Trudeau is re-elected Prime Minister of Canada
The Canadian Liberal Party is trailing the Conservative Party by 20 percentage points. This supports the prevailing public sentiment that the Liberal Party will lose the next Canadian federal election, whenever that is. There is also a global phenomenon occurring in national elections worldwide where incumbent parties lose federal elections, or have their majority significantly cut back ( recent examples of the former include the United States, the United Kingdom, and recent examples of the latter include France and India). Justin Trudeau has been Prime Minister of Canada since 2015 and the Liberal Party has been in power since then as well. Trudeau and the Liberal are ripe for defeat as per the global trend.
The prevailing public sentiment I was referring to earlier has the Canadian voters tired of Trudeau, that he’s spending too much public money and is too much of a socialist; Most recently the Liberals tried to buy votes with a hold on GST during the 2024 Christmas holidays and a $250 cheque payable to eligible Canadians; these “Christmas gifts” to Canadians will cost taxpayers $6B! I’m sure Donald Trump would rather see Canada spend this money on the country’s NATO commitment.
Despite all of this negative sentiment and data I believe Justin Trudeau is a better leader for Canada and that he and the Liberal Party will win re-election in the next Canadian federal election. Trudeau showed strong leadership by guiding Canada through the Covid-19 pandemic. He is well-respected around the world. He is showing leadership by being proactive in addressing the threat of tariffs by the United States against Canada.
The federal Conservative may be leading the Liberal by 20 percentage points in current polling, but they themselves are polling at only 38%. It’s not as if a majority of Canadians want Pierre Polivere as their next Prime Minister. In fact the thought of Polivere as Prime Minister scares many Canadians. I can’t get past the images of Polivere hanging out with ignorant trucker protests in front of Parliament Hill; or the image of him chatting amicably with people flying F^&* Trudeau flags from their vehicles. That’s not the image I want for Canada’s Prime Minister!
I feel Canadians will come to their senses and elect someone as Prime Minister who has the appropriate skill, experience and decorum - that being Justin Trudeau.
PS - my first draft of this prediction was written before Justin Trudeau tried to re-assign the Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland to another post over Zoom and Freeland in turn resigned from the cabinet a few days later. The matter was poorly handled by the Prime Minister in all aspects, especially given the long-running working relationship Trudeau and Freeland had to that point. These recent developments don’t have me revising my prediction here, as an election is not imminent and voters’ memories are short.
Postscript - January 6, 2025:
As of this morning I learned that Justin Trudeau is resigning as leader of the Liberal Party, which effectively means that once the Party has chosen a new leader he will no longer be the Prime Minister of Canada. And, as it relates to this prediction he will no longer run to be the Prime Minister of Canada in the election later this year, and cannot be as such in 2025. In other words my prediction here has already been rendered incorrect. This caught me by surprise; I was expecting Trudeau to lead the Liberals into the next election later this year.
The Ottawa Senators Make The 2024-25 NHL Playoffs
The NHL’s Ottawa Senators, my hometown pro hockey team, hasn’t made the NHL playoffs in seven seasons. The frustration at this amongst us fans is significant. In the past offseason the team brought in a new coaching staff, improved the goaltending, improved the defense core on the team, and brought in some experienced forwards that have won Stanley Cups with other teams, adding some championship pedigree to the roster. All of this raised expectations among the fans and the players that the Senators are finally going to make the playoffs in the 2024-25 season.
We are about 35 games into the 2024-25 season and the product on the ice definitely looks a lot better. The team looks much more structured in their play, the goaltending has been brilliant at times and the Senators have beaten some of the better teams in the league in early season play. The team is now five games over .500 hockey, has strung together six wins a row, and has demonstrably been the better team in about six games and yet ended up losing.
The team is on roll and playing with consistency for the last ten games. This has excited the fans, the players and the coaching staff. All signs indicate this team can play even better, and should have a winning percentage of .600-.650. . Most fans expected the team to take 20 games to adjust to a new coaching staff and their new system, and expected the team to be winning the games they are now. The team is now performing as per expectations.
I am very optimistic about the Ottawa Senators! I’m willing to give the team until the 40 game mark, or roughly half-way through the season, to adjust and adapt to a new system, and reach that .600-650 winning percentage. I would then expect the team to win a lot of games in the second half of the season. By the mid-way point the players should know the new systems the coaches have implemented, and the new coaching staff should know what they have with their roster of players. The players, coaches and fans have to remain patient and trust the process for another ten games. If the team reaches games 50-60 and middles along at a .500 record, then we should all be annoyed. Having said that I’m not sure what we’d do at that point as the franchise has already brought in new management, has already brought in new coaches, and has already brought in some new players - heck, even the team’s ownership is new. There’s not much left to change!
I’m predicting that the Ottawa Senators will make the playoffs this season, as I believe the coaches have implemented a good system of play for the team, and I believe the team has the talent to win in the NHL.
The Boston Red Sox make the 2025 MLB playoffs
My favourite major league baseball team is the Boston Red Sox. They won the World Series in 2018 and last made the MLB playoffs in 2021. Expectations among their fans are always very high and so by missing the playoffs in 2024 for the third year in a row the fans are not happy. Red Sox fans were especially unhappy at the end of the last season as our arch rivals the New York Yankees played in the World Series. At the time our angst at the Red Sox and Yankees was only mitigated by the fact the Yankees lost the 2024 World Series to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
My prediction is that the 2025 Boston Red Sox will make the playoffs. The team just traded for a strong starting pitcher, Garrett Crochet, adding to a decent starting rotation. The team already has star players Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tristan Casas and Tanner Houk. The team claims it’s not done yet improving their lineup, looking to add another starting pitcher, a right-handed bat, and another catcher. Should these additions come to fruition we’ll not only be talking about making the playoffs but also be talking about playing for a World Series championship.
In 2025 the Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeds 50,000
While we may not like the fact that Donald Trump won the recent US election, we can’t complain about how the US stock markets have reacted to his election win. From Nov 6th to mid December those stock markets have gone up almost 8%. Because of Trump’s propensity to reduce personal and corporate taxes, and reduce business regulations, analysts are predicting the stock markets will continue to go up under a Trump administration.
As of mid-December 2024 the Dow Jones Industrial Average sits at 43.9K. My prediction is that investor’s enthusiasm will continue to drive the index up to the point where it will cross 50K.
In 2025 There Will Still Not Be Any Consumer Products Available That Entirely Consist of AI
Artificial Intelligence or “AI” continues to dominate conversations in the media and in business communities, as to what it will be (what will it look like), how will it impact the lives of the average citizen, and how many jobs and what job will it take away?
AI is already among us today. ChatGPT offered by OpenAI is available for free as a desktop application or a mobile application. It can help us create written content for our own writing projects or for social media. I would argue that it’s a better search engine than Google at the moment, although I wouldn’t suggest It’s going to replace Google as the world’s default search engine.
A tech company, Nvidia makes integrated circuits that power the functionality of computers or servers used in AI applications. So far all of these applications are used by enterprise application companies, which enable these user companies to perform certain engineering or business functions more effectively and more efficiently. A mobile phone or a personal computer may have AI-driven features in it. I have yet to see a consumer product or application that is entirely driven by AI, that people will buy. Until this happens, AI as a technology will only go so far. Nvidia is flying high on the stock market on the potential of widespread AI applications, of which there are no pureplay consumer products.
I don’t see this changing in 2025. I already see some consumer devices with AI features, the Apple iPhone for example. But no new ”killer app” as they used to say in the nineties.
EVs will not exceed 10% of the vehicles on the road; in 2022 EVs made up 14% of vehicle sales . In 2022, 3% of vehicles on the road were EVs, globally.
Electric Vehicles, or “EVs” are all the rage. The Teslas and Ford EV version of the Mustang look cool. The higher end Teslas are perceived as luxury vehicles and priced accordingly, approaching $100,000.
People buy them because they feel like they are doing their part to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions generated by fuel-burning vehicles, by reducing the number of those types of vehicles on the road. The irony in this is that effort to support electric vehicles, ie. The charging stations and the manufacturing plants produce GHG. As a result it will take a lot of EVs on the street to make a dent in the GHGs produced.
As the headline above notes only 3% of vehicles globally are electric powered. Despite their popularity among green-heads, why do we have so few EVs on the road? One reason is that we don’t have enough EV charging stations. With a fuel burning car a driver doesn’t worry about fueling up until the gas gauge nears Empty, at which point they go to the nearest gas station and fill-up. This doesn’t require any advance planning. Because EV stations are few and far between knowing how much range you have on your existing electric charge is important, as is where you are going to get your next charge before you run out of charge…there is a lot more planning involved.
How long does it take to fill a fuel-burning vehicle with gas? Maybe three minutes? To charge an EV from a standard household 120V charging port, a Level 1 charge - takes 20-50 hours! Much more than a standard overnight charge of your mobile phone of eight hours! A Level 2 charge using 240V chargers takes between 4 to 12 hours…yikes! You can’t charge your EV on the way to the office, or while picking up the kids from school. More planning required.
Until the battery charging technology improves to allow for rapid charging, and until you have at least one EV charging station for every gas station we won't see a prevalence of EVs on the road. Each year more and more people will buy and drive EVs but we won’t make a dent in the population of gas-powered vehicles for some time.
Driverless vehicles will still not be a thing in 2025
I know that driverless taxis are being deployed in San Francisco and in Phoenix. In those cities we are not hearing about a plethora of accidents, or injuries caused by these driverless vehicles, so the tests must be going reasonably well. Despite all of this I don’t see driverless vehicles as being prevalent across North American cities in 2025.
I would imagine that municipal leaders need a lot more testing data to convince them that the incidence of accidents will be the same or lower than that of driver-operated vehicles. And, there would need to be considerable evidence that these driverless vehicles could not be hacked as other control software may be. Maybe I’ve watched too many movies, but this fear that some evil criminal will hack into the operating system of a fleet of driverless vehicles, override their control and have all the vehicles turn left at some random moment, crashing thousands of vehicles simultaneously causing severe injuries and damage. I know that sounds crazy, but it seems like every month we hear/read in the news about some cyber attack on a major corporation’s key systems and data.
My sense is that the use of driverless vehicles that prevails is an automated driving system that controls my own vehicle so I don’t have to drive it, a sophisticated cruise control system. As opposed to driverless taxis where as a passenger you don’t have control over the operating system, or can’t take control of the vehicle if something goes awry. I don't see driverless taxis as prevalent until these safety concerns are addressed.
I’m glad testing on driverless vehicles is being done. I'll simply need some more assurance before I get into a driverless car!
As a result I don’t see driverless vehicles as prevalent in 2025.
Doug Ford will still be Premier of Ontario in 2025
I’ll admit I’m not a fan of Doug Ford. Instead of spending time on having corner stores sell beer and wine, or instead of wasting money on rebate cheques, I’d rather the Premier and the Provincial Government spend their time and resources on improving the Province’s health care system and improving the education system. Most Ontario residents I speak with agree the priorities should be Health Care and Education.
Despite my feelings about Doug Ford, my sense is that he is well regarded in Ontario, and that he has shown strong leadership skills.
Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie has not proven herself to be a viable alternative to Doug Ford and so she doesn’t have the confidence of Ontario voters.
It’s likely there will be an election in the Province of Ontario in 2025, and for reasons above my prediction is that Doug Ford will be re-elected in this upcoming election and will remain the Premier of Ontario in 2025.
The Russian-Ukraine war will end
My prediction is that in 2025 we will see the end of the Russia-Ukraine war…that’s the good news. The bad news is my prediction as to how the war will end and what will come next.
I predict that Donald Trump will cease or severely curtail the United States support for Ukraine’s war efforts, other countries around the world will not make up the difference and Ukraine will be forced into some form of surrender of either most or a significant portion of Ukrainian territory.
Trump will allow Russia to take over another sovereign nation,Ukraine, which in itself is a travesty. Further it will embolden Russia to take over other sovereign nations it desires, and it will embolden other nations to do the same, given the United States and NATO’s failure to support Ukraine’s sovereign independence (i’m looking at you, People’s Republic of China regarding Taiwan).
Yorumlar